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Here’s today’s archived WLW.

Monday is a U.S. Holiday so I’ll see you at either the FXStreet Webinar at 12 EDT on Tuesday or at our regular time on Wednesday.

If you missed yesterday’s webinar and would like to review it, you can use this link.

Be good to you!
Triffany

_______

WLW Reminder

Watchlist Webinars are free to members and happen on Mondays and Wednesdays  at 8am EDT.  You can register to attend using the link in the blog category “Training” that says “[name of month]’s wlw link”.  Once you’re registered, you’ll receive reminders for the month from Citrix.  Once a new month begins you’ll have to register for the new room using the same link in the “Training” of the blog.

There are also free webinars at FX Street (www.fxstreet.com) on Tuesdays at 12:00 (noon) EDT.

Trade Alert Reminder

Remember:  The purpose of these trade alerts and watchlists is to keep discussion going about what’s going on in the marketplace.  It is not my intention to have you trade what I trade, simply to tell you which trades I take that we’ve talked about at the WLWs.

In order to make this the best learning opportunity for you, it’s important that you share your thoughts and ideas on the charts, fundamentals, psychology, or whatever you need.

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Login for the live WLWs on Monday’s and Wednesday mornings at 8am EDT.

You will have to register for the first webinar of each month, but after that you will not have to register again until there is a new link.

The link changes every month, but you can always find it under the “Training” Category or in the Calendar section of the Blog.

Archived sessions will be in individual postings labeled “Watchlist Webinar for DATE”

I hope you can attend!! 
Triffany

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The only other setup that works for the way I trade is the E/U, 4h, potential double bottom or nosedive on that one, too.  Everything else looks irregular and any trades I might have taken triggered during the Euro session.

How about you?  Are you even trading this week?  I wouldn’t blame you if the answer is no. 

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Be extra, extra careful this week.  Conditions, both fundamental and technical, are primed for turbulence.

I’ll be posting September’s WLW link soon.

Be good to you!
Triffany

_____

WLW Reminder

Watchlist Webinars are free to members and happen on Mondays and Wednesdays  at 8am EDT.  You can register to attend using the link in the blog category “Training” that says “[name of month]’s wlw link”.  Once you’re registered, you’ll receive reminders for the month from Citrix.  Once a new month begins you’ll have to register for the new room using the same link in the “Training” of the blog.

There are also free webinars at FX Street (www.fxstreet.com) on Tuesdays at 12:00 (noon) EDT.

Trade Alert Reminder

Remember:  The purpose of these trade alerts and watchlists is to keep discussion going about what’s going on in the marketplace.  It is not my intention to have you trade what I trade, simply to tell you which trades I take that we’ve talked about at the WLWs.

In order to make this the best learning opportunity for you, it’s important that you share your thoughts and ideas on the charts, fundamentals, psychology, or whatever you need.

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Or download it here

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Monday, August 23, 2010

Germany’s positive Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) for Services couldn’t save the Euro as the other PMI reports out of the EuroZone showed a strong decrease.  In times, like these, when deflationary pressures are high the market reacted to the decrease as an overall sign that growth for the area is slowing down more than hoped.

U.S. equities dropped to a five-week low, bringing risk aversion into the equation and dropping the Euro even further during the NY trading session.

The Cable and the Loonie also saw strength to the USD side of the majors on risk aversion, but not enough to force either of them to pick a direction and go.

The Aussie and the Kiwi seem to have lost some strength on political risk as the Australian election is re-tallying its result.  The lack of a clear majority in their Parliament has equated to some fear induced selling and will most likely remain that way until there are clear results.

Tuesday, August 24, 2010

Germany posted some positive news in the form of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) which increased by 2.4% as well as growth in both the Capital and Construction Investment numbers.  Germany’s news wasn’t enough to float the Euro, however market turns attention away from the economic calendar to focus on a bigger issue facing the European Union.  Greece’s banks posted terrible second quarter earnings and have run out of lenders.  Greek banks now rely mainly on the strapped and limited European Central Bank for money supply.  Spain and Portugal aren’t as dire, but are still in a similar situation as their own growth is stifled by low employment and inflationary pressures.

The Euro, Cable and Loonie took the brunt of the sentiment shift led by overall risk aversion.

The Yen also wears the battle scars of the market’s fear as it plummets to 84 against the USD.  Last time the Yen was this strong was in April and May of 1995.  1995!!! With very few intervention options available to Japan at the moment it is possible it could continue to strengthen.

Early New York session brought some relief to the beleaguered Euro and Yen with the U.S. posting dismal housing numbers.  With the home buying tax credit expired, home sales dropped by 1.54M in July.  That is significant because the consumers’ willingness to spend (on both big and small ticket items alike) is essential as the last leg out of a recession.  With the U.S. appearing to be unable to deliver that last push the currency sold off for a short time before risk aversion settled back in.

With the Japanese left somewhat helpless to weaken their currency and the U.S. somewhat helpless to keep the reputation of theirs it seems risk aversion may well be in place for the remainder of August.

Wednesday, August 25, 2010

Markets seem to be eyeing an oversold equities market as a good buying opportunity as U.S. stocks gain today in early N.Y. trading.  That goes far toward negating worries over Ireland’s downgrade by the S&P over the course of yesterday’s Asian session that looked to drive more risk aversion into the market place.

The EuroZone had its own reason to celebrate in Germany’s IFO report which increased by .5 margin but beat the market expectations by over a full point.  Germany has posted an almost 11 point gain on its IFO since the January signaling that although growth is slow, the EZ’s best chance for recovery is still growing.  The Euro didn’t really move on the news, however it did seem to stall any further selloff.

It was a no-news day for the GBP, but it still managed to nudge near the highs of yesterday’s momentary fear based USD selloff on more bad home sales news out of the U.S. (new Home sales dipped from 330K in June to 276K).

Thursday, August 26, 2010

A slow news day kept most of the majors near the consolidation areas started after yesterday’s cool down.

The one exception is the Swissie which strengthened well past the long held 1.0375 level established in July.  The CHF had good reason to strengthen on its own merit with strong employment levels (3.968M in 2Q) but also as a an alternate safe have to the USD as the U.S. posted further job losses and continuing claims in August.

Bigger news than that, however, is considering what Japan will do about its poor muscle-bound Yen.  Prime Minister Kan is putting a lot of pressure on the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to stimulate growth in the form of their own stimulus package proposed by the ruling party.  The options are unclear for the BoJ right now, but all eyes are on the Pacific Island as they haggle their next steps with the Bank and their constituency (remember there is an election coming soon for the PM spot).`

Friday, August 27, 2010

The Euro failed to surge after incredibly positive German Retail Sales numbers (an increase of 6.8%) indicating that the market may be holding out on a direction until many of the bigger issues facing the market are addressed.  How slow is “slow growth” in the U.S.?  What will the BoJ do to weaken its currency?  How long will the ECB really extended its quantitative easing program to aid Greece, Spain and Portugal?

Similarly, the Pound posted good preliminary GDP numbers (up by .1% in QoQ data) as well as positive exports (an increase of 2.8%).  Even private consumption is up by .8%.  Yet the Sterling fell from yesterday’s highs, retracing to the top of the previous consolidation area at 1.5480.  That retracement may be deceptively creating bullish sentiment for the pair now that the price has been driven back to affordable levels.  If the positive news out of Britain can find some positive news out of the U.S. then it may be time to buy this pair all over again.

Is there positive news out of the U.S.?  Personal consumption rose from 1.6% to 2%.  GDP Index rose by .1% and Annualized GDP was .2% better than expected.  Arguably, yes, but next week’s equities market is likely to lead the way in terms of overall market sentiment.

The “wait and see” sentiment in regard to Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s next steps as well as Prime Minister Kan’s promise of “bold” action is likely to hold throughout the NY Session today.  More reason for the market to wait:  Bernanke and Trichet are meeting today in Wyoming to discuss their QE plans for their respective countries.  With the two countries having such varying results there should be a lot to discuss and a lot more to consider before investors move forward today.

Market seemed to focus on a very positive outlook from Bernanke’s Jackson’s Hole report citing the better than expected growth rate for the U.S., the oversold conditions of the equities markets as well as the willingness by the Federal Reserve to do everything it can to continue this last leg of recovery.  The USD selloff proved his words to be effective for closing traders.

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Fictional protagonists go through a lot.  They persevere, they overcome, they learn and they grow.  A good protagonist is also imperfect.  They make mistakes, they lose their temper, they try to be good, but often screw up from time to time anyway.

I can’t speak for you, but I know that pretty much describes me pretty well.

I’ve been through a lot. I’ve made some mistakes, some major and some minor.  I’ve always made the decision to get back up, even when that was the most painful thing for me to do. And yes, I still get it wrong from time to time.

Thinking about my life as a book, changed my view of my trials, tribulations and triumphs.  Astounding alliteration aside, I enjoyed looking at my life through that lens.  Suddenly, I was able to see the character in myself.  More importantly, I am now able to view my moment to moment decisions with a wider scope.  Will I respect the protagonist who sits in a desk chair and works all day long?  Maybe…that’s a quiet kind of heroism.  How about one who is completely stubborn about certain opinions that they’re difficult to rationalize with (yes, that’s me about Western medicine).  Maybe…maybe not…but whether I respect them [me] or not I’ll be able to relate or empathize with them.

Of course there are many considerations that are running through my mind about my choices, but I’d rather you take a look and ask who the hero is in your own story.  What story are you writing with your life?  Do you like your decisions?  If not, are you changing them or just feeling guilty about them.  If you’re feeling guilty about them, can you now relate and empathize with yourself a little better and let that lead to the changes you want?  If you think seriously about this exercise, the course of thoughts can really run on and I feel that it is a very important discussion to have with yourself.

If you’re able to look at your life by the tale being told with your real-time, right-now decisions you may open the door for new possibilities with the choices you make.  Maybe your story will be something grandiose like creating a foundation that leads to world peace.  Or maybe it will be simple and quiet like a person who fights through illness, depression or fear and still chooses to get up and go to work every day.  That doesn’t save lives or alter the course of history, but it takes a certain kind of inner strength to do it and is a hero nonetheless.

My point is this:  YOU are the hero of your own story.  What kind of hero are you?

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