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	<title>TrifFX &#187; USD/CHF</title>
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		<title>Good news not enough?</title>
		<link>http://www.triffx.com/fundamental-analysis/good-news-not-enough/</link>
		<comments>http://www.triffx.com/fundamental-analysis/good-news-not-enough/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 30 Jul 2009 20:46:59 +0000</pubDate>
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				<category><![CDATA[Fundamental Analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[USD/CAD]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[USD/CHF]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.triffx.com/?p=3</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The CAD and the CHF both had some pretty good news this week. The CHF seems to be bouncing off of a long held support area after the market had digested its good news, imports are up, money supply is up, real estate is up. The market seemed to yawn at all the good news, [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">The CAD and the CHF both had some pretty good news this week.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The CHF seems to be bouncing off of a long held support area after the market had digested its good news, imports are up, money supply is up, real estate is up.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: small;">The market seemed to yawn at all the good news, giving no strength to the CHF against the USD.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In a market where everyone seems to have skipped town and avoided a discussion on risk altogether, neither embracing it nor rejecting it, this behavior caught my eye. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: small;">Will the lag in reaction happen with the CAD as well? </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: small;">Retail Sales for the Loonie came into positive numbers on their Retail Sales going from a previous -.8% up to<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>1.2%, Wholesale Sales at least became a less negative number by .3%, going from -.6% to -.3%.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There was quiet and dignified praise apparent in their monetary policy talks at the rate decision this week (</span><a href="http://www.bank-banque-canada.ca/"><span style="font-family: Calibri; color: #0000ff; font-size: small;">http://www.bank-banque-canada.ca</span></a><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">), specifically in terms of how well inflation has been kept in check.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">So, even though the CAD has nudged a little higher on this news, it hasn’t done so with gusto.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In fact it seems that the market had a crystal ball and in priced in CAD strength last week.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: small;">This leads me to believe that it may be due for a bounce to the USD side, in the short term.</span></p>
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