Thread for Thursday/Friday Traders, July 15/16, 2010
Here’s a place for you Thursday/Friday traders to share ideas, thoughts and trades.
Be good to you!
Triffany
About Triffany
Triffany Hammond helps traders of all levels, gain the tools, resources and guidance necessary to build on their strengths and work around their weaknesses so that they can make the best possible decisions for themselves in the Forex Market. Triffany is a regular speaker and contributor at FXStreet.com and heads "The Human Element" a blog dedicated to trading psychology at ForexMotion.com Want to know more? She was recently profiled in "FXStreet.com's Women in Forex" Series.
You can contact her at Triffany(at)Triffx.com
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Hmm,,,, now we lost the most recent conversations.
Aby, Like you I am long USDJPY. Short Kiwi – all at a loss. with hope…
You shouldn’t have lost anything. They should all be there in yesterday’s post. Are you having problems w/ the blog where you can only see one posting or something?
It seems overly complex. why not put them together? I must be a little dense
If there is a way to merge posts I don’t know it. I’m just concerned that you’re not seeing everything…especially after your post yesterday saying you didn’t see yesterday’s thread.
After so many problems with the blog lately I just want to make sure everything is working properly.
My post on yesterdays thread just to catch things up … I am short USDCHF which closed below some tough levels, and long GBPUSD above 1.5233 (i entered at 1.5250 in case it was a fake out) and hoping to hold on to it till 1.5490. Yes the USDJPY doesn’t look that great now, but then again there’s not much movement on it so we can expect a drop. lets wait and see …
My waffle for today …
Apparently Wednesday’s UK jobless data has been the best in months, unemployment down, claims down … sounds good huh ? Well you’re wrong, apparently analysts are saying this could just be the calm before the storm. Can we never keep analysts happy ? When things were going down they find 1 good report and start thinking we’ve just been saved, then when things are finally moving up we get 1 good report they say no it will get worse, life’s not worth living! I guess analysts are simply paid to say the opposite, cos the obvious we already know. Movie critics see a good movie they say its bad, see a bad movie they say its good, the more awards it won the more boring it was.
While I’m bashing, on a technical note, the analysts were saying that the sharp increase in jobs was more in temporary jobs and part-time jobs but not so much in the full-time area. These technicalities always seem to mess up reports, last time the US jobs report was muffled by everyone saying that it was government jobs going up or it was due to the new 10 square mile Mega-KFC which now serves the generation-tub as an upgrade to the family-tub with free mini salad. Stupid reports, what’s the point ???
I think I got up on the wrong side of the bed today …
You’re not entirely off since analysts all try to be the one who gleaned something from the news that the other ones didn’t. That is part of what makes the fundamental analysis so difficult for us as individual traders.
The problem that we have right now is that the divergence between a market that is willing to trade and the analysts who see more doom and gloom is that it is giving false technical signals left and right.
Until those two things converge again – we may be seeing more of this. Remember at the beginning of this month we talked about the likelihood of an extended period of what basically makes up a great big shoulder-shrug from the market makers.
This big pause, wait and see, kind of emotional marketplace divergence may end up being a good thing once the market picks a direction it will likely be very committed to it. Until then…it kind of sucks.
Not the wrong side of bed…….. Here’e the skinny…. NEVER BELIEVE GOVERNMENT REPORTS! They are usually massaged; they have a story to tell, if they possibly can! The US government has a policy of lying about everything….. They are pathological liars! and they pay people to spin the words…. And so does the media….; they have to SELL! I have been watching closely the daily “blogs” so-to-speak of the girl that has the Thai Baht beat for Bloomberg. She exaggerates, distorts, fibs, and fabs – all to get her daily blab on the slab! She is paid to do it – her boss loves it, because the downline clients – Newsweek, Reuters, WSJ all print that Sh…..t.
Come on Aby,,, just need to “read” it….. I practiced that when I started reading the China Daily in 1985. I got fairly good at it…………
now. sit up straight and be Aby…. the guy we all love…
And, the UJ is tanking on some sort of emotion!
I am a CFA (Chartered Financial Analyst) Spent a number of years doing securities research and never understood the traders……. still don’t. I also was partner in charge of a NYSE firm groups responsible for IPO’s and a herd of analysts. They are fundamentally at odds…. For me, it is a difficult transition from longer term analyst to trader – short or long term……. ignoring the “facts” as perceived and massaged and taking advantage of the technical charts. Overall, it would be a good thesis to write, but much too complex to rationalize and explain in a short chat.
OK. I am long the UJ at a growing loss. To me, the chart looks crappy. My hunch (intuition?) says its worth holding……. All wrapped up in a SWAG
Yes the USDJPY isn’t looking very happy, I apologise if you used me as a reference for the trade … I am still in as I am about now at break even again so I am still willing to give it some time …
I do realise that reports and analysts don’t exactly tell the truth, but what I don’t get is why they go around lying about the lie to try to find the truth ??? Triffany’s got the picture though, analysts have the luxury of time and are happy to wait for clear proofs of a fundamental change in whichever direction whilst traders are the ones that have to find the change before everyone else …
I disagree with Triffany and Aby, concerning analysts……. Not all analysts are the same…. Ethics in the financial analyst “profession” have followed the overall trend of ethics and morality worldwide. Moreover, there are extremely fine analysts along with the run of the mill, and the liars, and those who essentially don’t know what or who they are. As a generalization, all those appearing on TV, Bloomberg, et al. are paid liars and/or talking heads…… Excluding George Soros, Jimmy Rogers, Marc Faber, and maybe one or two more. But I very much take issue with Triffany and Aby on this score.
I don’t think Triffany said that , she just said that there is a disagreement between the market and the analysts which has caused a lack of staying power in market movement, and she didn’t say they were liars but they do analyse thats their job and analysis is discretionary and therefore they can say things that can be gleaned from reports etc and they aren’t going to be wrong but the question is were they compelled by the facts or by their need to say something different, however honest they are. My point is that you can take everything apart and turn it on its head, but you can also look at it as it is and leave it as it is.
Apparently the fed has said that the economy is not so great and they might need more monetary easing so thats where the USD tanking is coming from, presumably weighing in on the USDJPY heavily … I wonder how the fed calculates all this stuff, yes i think we need more monetary easing ? How much ? oh we have calculated that $1,387,892.67c should do the trick thanks !!!
Aby, I did follow you on the UJ, but I make my own decisions, and harbor no ill will!!!
So apologies not needed…. UJ has got 7 down candles on the 4 hour (with one modest up)…… I am planning to hold on…….. maybe. 
Cheers…. Just think, at least, you got out of bed…… some didn’t.. ha ha
The Fed is a group of analysts ———- Ben and Alan, Larry, just think of all those super analysts…. they make big money speaking….. no matter what they say…..
Neither did I say that analysts are liars. FOR SURE…. to the contrary, I said there are many shapes and sizes of analysts…. and described some of the shapes.
Yaqui, as a counter trender……… you ready to counter the usdjpy slide? or any others?
USDJPY. We have sharp rejection at resistance 89.142 (my 4Hr chart) at Triffany’s muddy zone – double top? Now possible three rejections at the trend line support – if it holds. The way I read the sentiment its negative and growing. Also increasing negative sentiment on the Daily. With nasty losses, I hang on. Others hanging? on or off?
I’m still in, though I don’t have high hopes for this trade.
If not great hopes where have you revised your exit point? Or looking for a retracement on Fibo?
I haven’t really thought that through, at the moment I just have a hard stop at 86.90 and the PT is still where it is, if i chicken out then I’ll just take it off manually
Hey Jerry … I guess the USDJPY does what the USDJPY does best …
Where is everyone so far … any buys for anyone on the GBPUSD EURUSD USDCAD … going well ?
I am long GBPUSD, I should have bought the EURUSD but i have an aversion to that pair and got the creeps … I sold the USDCHF and sold the USDJPY and that tanked out for a big loss so I am hoping the other trades will bring me back and I am long GBPCAD I figured if the USDCAD is on the up and the GBPUSD is also going up I’d rather be a GBPCAD guy, you guys should check out this pair, there’s not much testing you can do on it cos no one has any historical data, (eventhough you just have to multiply the 2 base pairs) so the only real testing I have done is live (for 4 months now) and there are some rules you learn about it but I am starting to like this pair, it has no idea what its doing most of the time, but once you time your break this thing moves 800 pips without turning back, no retracements !!! if you wanna know more let me know …
My other question to everyone is, with all the massive talk of huge position building against the EURUSD, what happened to all that ? Are people really coming back to the EUR or are they just leaving the USD ?
my worst month ever…….. enough….