Here’s a thread for you late-week traders! Have fun and remember that there are 2 Interest Rate announcements on Thursday, the ECB and the BoE.
Please be good to yourselves and I’ll check in when I can.
Triffany
Triffany Hammond helps traders of all levels, gain the tools, resources and guidance necessary to build on their strengths and work around their weaknesses so that they can make the best possible decisions for themselves in the Forex Market. Triffany is a regular speaker and contributor at FXStreet.com and heads "The Human Element" a blog dedicated to trading psychology at ForexMotion.com Want to know more? She was recently profiled in "FXStreet.com's Women in Forex" Series.
You can contact her at Triffany(at)Triffx.com
Ouija board please tell us!
GBPJPY didn’t fall below the sell short mark, yet had the audacity to rise above the 71.8% fibo mark (hi June 28 135.268 closing July 8 at 134.537) on the 4 Hour scale…. Where does this thing go from here? Does it retrace its recent race from 131.30 or so back 50% on the current fibo? Does it crash back down to break old support of 131.245, then break further south? or does it retrace only to the 23% and race up to 136.4?
Oh great Ouija board readers please advise this poor rejected wimp…..
need the coins…
Hi Jerry, I have been long GBPJPY on a longer term trade from the 4HR since the 27th May, yes I am very unhappy with its progress and will send it straight into detention
http://www.screencast.com/t/OGU2NDY1MDU
(ps i am using opera now cos of the Triffx, so I don’t know why my writing is in bold)
Aby, just now got the screencast……………………… super great……………. very nice and thanks
If you’re long, Aby, you’re happy with the 300 PIP run! So move your Ouija board, is it going to correct to 50% on the 1 hour fibo? then where will it move?
Well just from the 1HR chart i can see the 800SMA is about where your 50% fib level is (although i personally would have drawn the fibs starting from the high at 21st June) so if it does break below 133 thats quiet a strong short move, i am of course hoping it won’t
I must concede to your greater expertise, but seems to me that on a 1hour chart you can draw fibs fron June 21,,,, June 28 or even July 8 – bottom to racy top………… No?
Hey guys!
I have a short bias on the Yen pair/crosses, but looks like I’m in a static one at the moment (CADJPY). Also short the Aussie.
Remember the HIGH impact news the next few hours…
I posted some good links on last week’s Intuition article in relation to the Learning Stages of a Trader – was a EUREKA moment for me reading this, very insightful. Would love to here everyone’s comments…
http://www.triffx.com/trading_psychology/consciousness-and-intuition/comment-page-1/#comment-1195
I enjoyed Triffany’s article at the time and also read your comments although I have to admit I didn’t take a look at the links, but I kinda deliberately stayed away from discussing intuition, as I have always understood intuition as a make up of oneself and of one’s personal experience put together, which as a result of those experiences the mind eventually draws a picture of good things for you and bad things for you until even the subtlest of hints can already draw a picture to the mind of where this new direction can take you into the future, you meet someone and suddenly you feel distrust, why ? cos your mind has already made up a picture of people who are good to you and who are not and immediately the mind sees that person it starts ticking boxes if this guy gets an X (even if its the shape of his nose) then the mind already warns you of possible outcomes … thats how i see intuition …. and as at the moment i don’t see myself as an experienced trader so i didn’t feel it fair to comment on something i am not qualified for ;-(
Thanks Aby, I can see where you’re coming from.
I don’t know who wouldn’t welcome a fresh set of eyes though. Experience can sometimes be overrated…eg. bad habits. I think it’s a great place to be, and you’re only ever there once. ;p There’s a great saying along the lines of “the secret to life is not in discovering new worlds, but looking at things in a new light”.
Ah ok, the links were less to do with Intuition and more to do with the stages of a Trader’s Journey from start to “end”. Or to the path of any inquiring minds really as they look to master something.
One interesting query is how would you go about training something like intuition? What kind of process would be involved?
I personally think that you cannot train the intuitive side of your mind by mere practice, practice only teaches the brain the logic behind the idea, so you can test your trading for 10 years and your brain will learn the ins and outs of each trade in a mathematical or logical way, but you’ll never really reach intuition cos intuition is a set of pictures not numbers and the only way to make those pictures is to see them in real time, intuition will only kick in after live trading. Triffany might kick me for this, but thats why I am a big believer in moving into live trading as soon as you are ready even if its a small account. That way the mind can start taking screenshots of what it experiences and grow its own intuition.
An example of the above idea is that you can show people who have never seen electricity pictures of a hot element all you like and you can even explain to them that its really hot, but they’ll never get an intuition about other wires and elements until they burn themselves … in short experience for me is the key !!!
Yeah Aby, I don’t think training intuition is that simple either, even with live trading. I think it’s something more than just experience, but yes, that’s the first step.
I’m also a huge advocate of starting live ASAP – there’s reputable brokers now that offer micro, nano, even user-specified position sizes. Nothing beats having real $$ on the line.
Well I like a good fight … but I do !!! Experience is all it is … there is no logic in being born with the ability to know how a candle will close or why not to care if the trade is going in the opposite direction … no one is born with Erujpy printed on his forehead (except maybe a couple of kids in Mongolia)
I agree that there are certain people who are more intuitive than others and this is down to an ability to be more sensitive to differences, a lot has to do with people having bad experiences, which creates a hyper sensitivity in certain areas, hence also women are more intuitive as they are more sensitive and can sense more slight changes and differences than men can (you can put that in the fxstreet women in forex article!!!) but thats not the point, the point is is that intuition is a hyper sensitivity created by experience, (I’m not going into the whole psychic network babble, i’m talking about the regular stuff).
Alriiight, this is good!!!
Experience is only just scratching the surface IMHO. eg. studies on identical twins raised in exactly the same environment, one ends up being CEO of XYZ, the other in jail. Same experience, different meaning = different actions/outcomes.
It’s a whole other level to make the jump to intuition. Something along the lines of years of hard work, discipline and practice, all with the highest levels of commitment, desire and focus. If that’s what you meant by intuition than I’m with you. I’m not sure it’s something you can train specifically, it just ‘happens’ as a result of all this. And I don’t think it’s something you can call on spontaneously either, like a forehand shot.
Generally, I agree women are more intuitive and ‘develop’ it easier than men.
I’ll just finish up here. I didn’t understand your twins thing, I am not referring to the psychic network (and other such scamming) or fate or anything to do with the meaning of life. This is a simple intuition which allows a person with using a small amount of information to extrapolate that information into a prediction of future outcome. So for example an experienced salesman can tell you just by being told an invention idea as to whether it will make money or a psychiatrist seeing a patient and guessing whats wrong with him or more directly to us a trader by looking at a chart to see where it will go, each person based on pure experience can take a very close guess as to what will happen purely out of experience. When you’ve seen it all even small pieces of information trigger a whole picture that others don’t even see.
We all call it intuition but the truth is to the expert its no more than obvious. And it certainly is trainable and can be requested on demand (though everyone will have a day when they are not as focused and such like) … the bottom line is this is the sort of intuition we are aiming for, do we really need more than this ?
Sorry, re: twins I meant that it’s a certain kind of experience that has to develop or be nurtured rather, that leads to intuition. A person’s view of reality and the meaning they make of an event may never lead them down a path to develop that kind of awareness.
Yes, I’m talking about the ‘regular’ stuff as well (non-psychic…). This relates very much to the feeling of being in ‘flow’ or ‘in the zone’. So I guess, yeah, it is something that can be called on-demand, but only by the most advanced of ‘zen-masters’ lol. Definitely a challenge to master, especially in one lifetime…
I guess you could argue if intuition is even needed – particularly if you had a totally mechanical trading system. With a more discretionary method, than intuition would be more handy to ‘have’.
hello all,
am currrently short the GBPUSD at 1.51500 first PT 1.5100 SL at 1.51900..my signal was the rejection candle on the 4hrs chart at about the begining of the europe session…however i also have counter buy pending trade at 1.50900 since this has been a good previous support.. what do you think?
I like the sell trade it makes sense, you’re basically playing the tight little channel, personally I would set my PT 10 pips higher to take the spread into account and to make sure you don’t just miss out, though it might smash through your PT, at the end of the day if you are just playing that range i would stay safe.
As for the buy orders, this works well if you have a long trade triggered or triggering and you’re waiting for the bounce down to get a better entry or you just want to spike a few pips back up a bit, but it’s a hard one to play, so i dont know what to say … Anyone else ?
I have a short bias as well, lots of rejection around that 1.52 level.
I like your thinking Jeremy, with the strong 4hr rejection candle entry. G/U is in a nice boxed channel and your 1st PT is good. There’s a big upwards channel as well starting from June 8 which looks to intersect 1.5090 as well. If it breaks through all that, could be clear sailing to 1.50 level.
Buy side, could be good option as well to play the horizontal box channel 5100-5200s.
There could be some momentum moves around these 2 levels as stops get hit and/or breakout orders.
I like the sell trade it makes sense, you’re basically playing the tight little channel, personally I would set my PT 10 pips higher to take the spread into account and to make sure you don’t just miss out, though it might smash through your PT, at the end of the day if you are just playing that range i would stay safe.
As for the buy orders, this works well if you have a long trade triggered or triggering and you’re waiting for the bounce down to get a better entry or you just want to spike a few pips back up a bit, but it’s a hard one to play, so i dont know what to say … Anyone else ?
I saw Triff’s comments about where we want to go……………. I am older than all of you, maybe double the age of some…………… dah. I want to make money and improve my dismal performance! Simple. Not interested in side discussions… only interested in identifying setups, precision executing, making profits, cutting losses,
Just some quick thoughts on the gbp/usd short discussion. One I would wait for the currency to break the trend line on the 4hr chart and also the currency is very close to the 800 sma which I think it will hit and range around before the currency chooses a direction. I agree with Abby on the 1hr channel. My thought wait for the market to confirm direction unless you are playing the channel and if you are then keep your stops tight. just my humble oppinon … we all have different systems and perspectives .. hope mine helps.
I don’t get this, the SNB are about to announce a huge FX loss from their intervention scheme, what were they thinking ? The only reason the EURCHF was staying up was cos of them, then they announced that they didn’t care so much about the the CHF position economically, so what did they think will happen next ? it will go up, simple … and they held on to those positions ? … it’s not their money you know !!!
Aby, I had the same reaction to the SNB! Stupid, it seems, but I found the entire thing quite strange.
It was inevitable, they couldn’t hold the dam wall indefinitely…
Yes but they were the ones who opened the doors, they announced it, so why announce that Spain will win the world cup and then go bet on Holland ?
Aby love the comment …. LOL ;o)
Yeah, makes you wonder doesn’t it…
I did read one interesting comment speculating some kind of political pressure – Hildebrand not wanting Switzerland to appear to profit from the problems of its neighbours, or make it ‘worse’.