Thread for Thursday/Friday Traders, June 10/11, 2010
Thursday/Friday Traders,
Here’s a place for your insightful trading discussions.
I’ll check in to offer my 2 cents from time to time.
Have a marvelous rest of your week!! :)
Triffany
About Triffany
Triffany Hammond helps traders of all levels, gain the tools, resources and guidance necessary to build on their strengths and work around their weaknesses so that they can make the best possible decisions for themselves in the Forex Market. Triffany is a regular speaker and contributor at FXStreet.com and heads "The Human Element" a blog dedicated to trading psychology at ForexMotion.com Want to know more? She was recently profiled in "FXStreet.com's Women in Forex" Series.
You can contact her at Triffany(at)Triffx.com
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Question: How long with the Kiwi rally last? and how far will it go? NZDUSD? with the USD selling off a bit and the Kiwi spiking — what is the magic mark to SELL? On the 4 hour maybe a high point might be .68620………….. Frankly I am sick of this puppy and revenge would be sweet……….. Experts? I await thy grizzly mark…………………
Hey Jerry!!
I’m just short the AUDUSD (teeny size, harmonics) looking for 8283s – it looks very similar to NZDUSD, but they both could squeeze 80+ pips higher. In which case I’ll feel better shorting from there, but we’ll see what unfolds…
Well, it has rebounded, way past the retracement level and is now flirting w/ the neckline of a daily double bottom. I’m watching that closely, because for me a close above that neckline will trigger a Long term long on the pair. A bounce downward will trigger another short. W/ 3 big candles screaming upward it seems later NY session/Early Asian will retrace it a bit. But, we’ll see. Here’s what I wrote in my fundamental report yesterday, that will be in tomorrow’s weekly wrap-up:
Succumbing to the pressure to raise rates the Reserve Bank of New Zealand did increase their interest rate by 25bp to 2.75%. The move seems premature, however, and the bank’s comments were reserved as Alan Bollard cited the expectation of rising inflationary pressures as reasoning behind the rate hike. Rate hikes could be a bit tricky for such an export driven economy, so it will be interesting to see how aggressive they’re willing to get in future rate decisions. If the RBNZ stays aggressive and keeps an eye on their currency as both a possible carry option as well as their increasing export prices, interest rates will continue to rise and could signal a longer-term turnaround for the NZD.
I’m all in now on the AUD short after that big 100+ push up, with similar setups on the NZD and A/J. Also short the GBP.
On another note, and following on from Triffany’s Balance article last week, I’m only just starting to feel in tune again after a long weekend away. It’s Thursday I know lol, but these things just cannot be rushed.
Definitely had to force myself to stay away from Monday’s WLW, and general trading-related actions, get some rest, slow down, freshen up etc. I feel ‘trade-worthy’ now. 
Yeh, Yaqui… agree, at this time of day, I plan to wait. the NU is holding under a descending Resistance line on 1 hr. but the 4 hour looks like price may ride further north. thanks.
usdcad going to hell in a handbasket…………yuk
No kidding. Yuck….but it is around the 800sma on both the 1h and the 4hr, so consolidation was likely.
I am long USDCAD, watching it reaching to a possible support at 1.033………. Anyone else watching? and/or have a current opinion?
By the way, any nod from anyone would let me know that the blog is at least working – o/w I have no clue
My experiance with the NZDUSD has shown me that it doesn’t always play out the full counter trend move that you expect and normally get from the more volatile pairs, its already made a move from 0.7200-0.6600 thats a good 600pips, although I believe it needs to get to 0.6275. you can’t always rely on logic and it can ralley its way up and never reach that point. so personally i am gonna wait this out for a good sign, though it seems it may take a range for now with a peak at 0.6900 so i may trade that range but not go for gold unless i see a close blelow 0.6600.
Don’t you just hate the USDCAD ! The week US trade balance has caused a fundemental sell off on the USD I am keen to watch the range on the GBPJPY which may play out either friday, or next week, I think it might close above tomorrow but then mess about …
I read that the SNB bought 55bn EUR to stop the CHF from rising, thats a lot of money, but I do believe they get a free tea service when you buy above 50bn !!!
…Otherwise today looks more like a uppy downy day, which also means we have no chance of beating our June 3rd record of 60 comments
SO true about the NZDUSD. I don’t ever recommend it to counter trend traders. It just isn’t smooth on the pullbacks. Of course, today it makes a liar of me when I say that, but it is still true of the pair, generally speaking.
Lol Aby, yeah some wild swings on Swissy lately to complement the Euro. I can just picture their correlations yoyo-ing around!
Well, I just got washed out of all the USDCAD…………. kiss that one goodbye………. I’m out for a while. screw it.
Thanks for the post, Aby
Aby, your much better at this………… on the NZDUSD why not take price to .694 to touch the 800 SMA on the 1 hour? Looking at the 4 hour, price is butting against strong resistance, but buying sentiment is strengthening ??
Its a thought, but I have never really liked getting in on a trade when the move is almost done, you never know if it will touch the 800 or the 800 will touch it further down. I think we’ve missed that move
A thought for me would have to be on the 4HR – a break above 0.6870 ish (above high’s) up to 0.7000 which is a move to the 800 on the 4HR but on the 1HR it looks a bit messy.
Trade Idea GBP/JPY: Break of resistance and day high 133.87 by 10 or more pips .. lets go above the 00 so 134.05 would be a buy with a sl 132.80 and profit targets: 134.26,134.90 and 135.80.
The setup is there from a technical standpoint. Could be a good trade all the way to 136 or so, since it would be another hit of the Daily TL.
I am still long GBPJPY from 27 May on the 4HR and have eaten through some nasty NFP drawdowns and dreaming of levels that are better left unsaid
so i am all for the up push on the GBPJPY … you don’t happen to have a spare £50bn to prop things up a bit, by any chance ?
lol .. yeah the gbp/jpy can do that to you and has to me at times ;o)
Ok trade triggered …. I am long gbp/jpy ;o)
Yaqui, on the AUDUSD, you are now short? I thought you were looking at the low 90′s after it marked a series of 3 lows on the 4 hour? Maybe I don’t remember correctly.
Jerry, you have an AWESOME memory!!!
And you’re right, I was. Not sure about the series of 3 lows though – you’re talking about the triple bottom?
Please give me a moment while I get some screenshots/analysis for you. I still have the harmonic drawn in from then, ~May 19. Cue ‘on-hold’ music now. ;D
Thanks Yaqui, looking forward to more of your thoughts!
Alrighty, sorry about that. Have a few balls in the air… still.
So this is what I was looking at back around May19 – http://screencast.com/t/NjVkNmM4.
The market pushed down a further 300+ pips on my feed the next 2 days, ending in a ~161.8 extension from the prior swing hi-lo, from a previous 127.2. This doesn’t invalidate my target of 90 though, that stays the same.
The other thing with harmonics is they can give you rough time targets so I’ve projected out the time it takes for each ‘triangle’ to form. Notice they’re not perfectly symmetrical, and most of my harmonics aren’t, but they still work pretty well.
Anyway, the projected ~90.00 target is roughly July 1, based on Daily charts which I rarely trade – it just doesn’t suit my personality. What I’m trading now is based on the 1 hour chart, and I have no problems taking it even if it conflicts with a higher timeframe – always on a case-by-case basis though. Plenty of time left for lots of little swings on the way up, down, around…
Here’s a snapshot of it, dwarfed by the leg of the other harmonic – http://screencast.com/t/MDZjMTRh
This was fun!!! Hope that clarifies things for you Jerry.
Yaqui, I am yielding to the sand man for tonight, but very interested in your next post that I will review tomorrow. Meantime, I entered a small short of the AU. SL .853 TP .83 (50% fibo retrace of the recent run up. Cya. thanks
All cool my friend. I’ll be following your cue soon too.
It’s posted and awaiting moderation, I think because of the length.
Well, not much movement on my GBP or AUD trades at the moment. I did take a GBPJPY short though near the highs with some great momentum, but it’s taking a breather now. Stops at b/e.
I’ve also been watching spot Gold (and silver) lately (XAUUSD) after the successive recent highs etc. Unfortunately I missed this setup – http://screencast.com/t/NzJlNTk5. By the time I blinked it ran away and chasing is a big no-no in my book. Oh well, next time…
Yaqui, your harmonics looks really cool, I wish i could do that when I grow up! When do you enter your trade ? for example in that gold diagram where is your entry for the buy trade is it after the close of the first big huge white candle at around 1223 ? and in that digram gold previously rose to 1226 before falling to the extreme low, would you have bought on that mid rise … and if not why not ?
Cheers guys, it’s great having varied trade ideas and opinions etc.
Lol, Aby you can!!
In the gold pic, ideally (lol) I would have entered as close to the box as possible to keep my RRR (risk reward ratio) viable. RRR *always* takes precedence for me. Real-world entry would have been below the candle bodies ~1217s with a stop about 70 pts. below recent swing lows ~1210s, PT 1228, RRR just above 1:1.5 so still good. Quite a quick impulsive move but oh well, we have to be patient alot of the times.
There was great momentum the next few hours and I would’ve moved stops to break-even half way to PT and start to scale out. You can see it shot up about 80% to PT which I consider to have ‘played out’ so no re-entries, including your big white candle. RRR remember.
And I would have been stopped out on remainder of position. I do scale in/out frequently and some of that’s discretionary which I’m still tweaking. 
Hope this helps.
Yaqui, You’re a neat guy – working the harmonics…. Thanks. We all appreciate your contribution. cheers
Meanwhile, I’m still short AUD and GBP, both pretty quiet, and stopped out of GBPJPY.
I’ve scaled out some of my AUD position, and happily added onto the GBP with the push to previous highs. Will exit both before the weekend close as usual.
I *was* considering a CAD long but it’s Friday so we’ll see come Monday. And thanks to Aby and Triffany for your comments re: the goofiness of this pair last week.
I did confirm it with someone else I respect and will do some further investigation.
Bad numbers … bad GBP … I guess lets just hope the market was just reacting to the bad numbers but gets less worried about it next week … i think if we can keep a candle close at the end of UK trading (12pmEST) on the GBPJPY at about 133.50, at least on my 4HR chart that still bodes well for a continued mid term trend upwards …
Aby, does that imply you are willing to add? What is your mid term TP?
Everyone busy cashing in on the PIPs! Hurray!
Will the N/U kiss the 800 1 Hour? Then zip down to .65?
Waiting with baited breath
What is the last strike of the week?