Thread for Thursday/Friday Traders, June 3/4, 2010
Here’s a place for you brave NFP traders to share your trading ideas and thoughts on the market!
Have fun!
Be good to you!
Triffany
About Triffany
Triffany Hammond helps traders of all levels, gain the tools, resources and guidance necessary to build on their strengths and work around their weaknesses so that they can make the best possible decisions for themselves in the Forex Market. Triffany is a regular speaker and contributor at FXStreet.com and heads "The Human Element" a blog dedicated to trading psychology at ForexMotion.com Want to know more? She was recently profiled in "FXStreet.com's Women in Forex" Series.
You can contact her at Triffany(at)Triffx.com
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Thanks to George Hain (sp) I took his trade and its doing well……
Hi guys, I missed yesterdays chat was out … Yes i am still long gbpjpy and the CADJPY long trade talked about during the WLW has now closed out (it did hit 89.50), see the pictures for details …
GBPJPY
http://www.screencast.com/t/ZmY4NGFm
CADJPY
http://www.screencast.com/t/MzdkNzE0
I don’t have anymore majoy ideas, still thinking about what I should do with the USDCHF, and the NZDUSD did close above 0.6863 on the 4HR chart but is now dropping down, I will asses a move on this pair after the next 2-3 4HR candles, it could be just a fake out, if it closes below 0.6833 it could be a nice short term short trade back into the centre of that consolidation (as Triffany like to do).
And also watching the AUDUSD for a break above 0.8550 to go long up to 0.8750, or a break short below 0.8330 … its all a bit geoee-astroee-fiscally-politically-messy … we could be in a period of resetting the pairs right now till the next big story, so I am on the lookout for resetting type trades and the AUDUSD’s move upwards is a nice reset for me.
Hope the AUDUSD works…… At the moment, its taking a rest. I took profit on the G/J but left some on to my regret …… now watching it consolidate.
Consolidation depends on the time frame I guess, from where I am its still got uppety in it, so I like the keep you did, personally … what time frame are you looking at ?
Haha, lovely recipe isn’t it Aby.
Well, I’m a glutton for ‘punishment’ – stopped out of my CAD long yesterday. That makes it about 3 out of 7 on this pair recently. Could this be the start of something? Am I becoming averse to this pair? Hmm, I don’t think so, but I’m definitely more conscious… something to keep in mind. May switch to more intra-day patterns ~sub 30min, ones in line with my longer term (weekly) bearish bias.
Currently short EURJPY and AUDJPY (instead of AUD); not expecting them to reach targets until tomorrow. But will close before NFP regardless!
The USDCAD is a very difficult pair to trade longer term, its definately something to break up its moves into short term bursts, I’ve tested this pair on the 4HR over 8 years and its a nightmare, mind you there is 1 thing about this thing I will say, is that it does stick to its trend, so I only get into short term level moves in the direction of the longer term trend, so right now the longer term charts show a down trend, I look for short opportunites … like now the longer term charts show a down trend so I would only sell … thats how i see things anyway …. does anyone dare to disagree with me
The U/CAD is a very tricky pair. Have never figured out quite why – but it makes sharp turns and does this weird fakeout action almost every time on every timeframe. I’ve considered testing it by simply taking the opposite side of the most recent directional move on a 15m time frame.
Thankyou both, haha, yeah I’m just starting to discover this first-hand, even with harmonics.
Always nice to get some experience from others. Looks like I’ll put in some screen-time on this pair methinks, see if I can’t figure out the ways of the loonie. Mysterious, it is.
Awesome momentum on my EURJPY and AUDJPY shorts, quick scale-ins, easily reaching target on EUR and half way there on AUD.
Oh, Aby, aye aye on the U/C….. I think its horrible to trade.
On the G/J I use the 1 hour and 4 hour, but also check down below just before entry or exit as a fine tuner. To me, the G/J has good prospects to touch the 800 on the 1 hr. I would like to see it close above 136.4 before adding. It has maintained a fairly even pace – that I like during these tricky times.
Cheers to all
Looks like the market may be pricing in some early USD jobs confidence.
Any thoughts on a long trade in either the AUDUSD or the NZDUSD (i know you said you’re not gonna mess with USD selling) but assuming you were this totally unbiased trader who usually only trades frozen concentrated orange juice … wouldn’t you think this latest push up of the NZDUSD above its box area could lead to a move up to 0.7ish and for the AUDUSD maybe a move up to 0.8750 ?
Short term, next few hours, I have AUDUSD bearishness to 83.60s. Long term, weeks, I’m favouring a move back to 90.
Similar on the NZDUSD.
isn’t the “refresh” key supposed to update this blog?
You’re absolutely right there Jerry … I keep pressing refresh button and Triffany still hasn’t replied to my AUDUSD/NZDUSD trade thoughts
… maybe I’ll try another 10 times … wait let me see
Thanks….. It refreshed that time…… often it doesn’t. I usually have to go to the email and download again… not very convenient.
Aby, since you’re watching the AUDUSD to break .8550, under what conditions would you enter a long on a support bounce, if so, or why not? seems to me might take a postage stamp position on the contra? Your skills are much better than mine….. thanks
You see, I just got a email regarding Yaqui’s comment, but It doesn’t come up on my blog….. lean on refresh??? no dice.
yes sometimes that happens to me, ive posted comments and they never show on the blog, maybe the system has an internal filtering device that doesnt post up comments with bad trade ideas ???
You rascal…… Now that’s why my trade ideas get quashed……
Yaqui, if you’re trading the moves short term, thats a good day, but with the NFP coming up on friday there always tends to be this resetting of price back to where it was ready for friday … so this pullback on the jpy pairs is expected … the question is which direction do the traders pick on friday ?
I agree Aby, that resetting seems to be the norm with NFP especially.
As for Friday’s direction, you already know the answer. Your magic 8 ball’s as good as mine, except on the CAD. ;p Only probabilities here, ask a ‘different’ question.
except on the CAD ??? explain ?
Lol, j/kidding… your radar, and Triffany’s is more accurate than mine on the CAD.
But this will be rectified! ;p
Unfortunately, Yaqui’s comments simply do you play on my blog….. Sorry yaqui……. I know your ideas are good ones…..
Lol, you guys crack me up!!! ;D
I’m not going by email updates – just refreshing the comments feed, seems almost instantaneous.
Ok, Yaqui, I took a short on the AUDUSD just for moral support and hopefully a couple coins…
O Oh!
I’m only in the AUDJPY, but harmonically 1st PT @ 84.35′s is significant S/R level if I was trading AUDUSD.
Be careful out there!
Yaqui, I am with you on that, AUD and NZD long term up and short term down … I am trading only long term at the moment, so I will await my signal … all your comments are not being posted, try clicking the submit comment button
Wha?!!??!
No idea what you mean.
I see my comments, you see my comments, and Jerry??
OK, Yaqui, your machine is better than my MAC and my ubuntu…… Maybe the Thai police are monitoring you? likely.
By the way, to my trading companions……. Request, think of me (maybe a drink of your favorite wine) on Sunday at 6 PM….. Some nimble doctors are going to place some stents in my heart…. If the procedure interests you, I am making a DVD of the procedure….
Tell the doctor to put a refresh button in as well
Good luck !!!
Jerry I can see now why you are not seeing Yaqui’s comments, they do apprear on the blog, but if the comment is a reply to a previous comment then it appears in its place not at the bottom, so if you look for it … you will see it …
Thanks….. got it…
Oooh Jerry, I will say some prayers for you!
Will look forward to hearing from you next week, as soon as you’re able.
In any case, puts all our comments today in perspective.
Ha ha, Aby,,,,,,,,, great idea. a refresh button…. actually, I think they are using a Firebird stent….. nothing like a sippy Firebird in your breast
Yaqui, life is to live! Just go for it, man! I do…. thanks.
Exactly, that’s my motto too!!
OK, Aby, I will look for Yaqui’s “replies”
The comments button feed *always* lists the most recent comments first – so I don’t have to go searching.
George and Yaqui – fantastic call on the G/J! Super!
Thanks Jerry, some great trades today huh, just UnBelieVable!!!
You can only take what the market’s willing to give… but gee, I shake my head in disbelief some days.
I was following the AUDUSD call with my AUDJPY trade, good thing I did – PT came within 2 pips on A/U and 12 A/J, so closed it before it rallied. I have to make more of a habit of paying attention to the corresponding majors of any crosses I trade. Duhhh
Have a great weekend all, and be safe out there! A hiking long weekend for me.
And Jerry, I wish you a safe and welcome ‘refresh’.
Blog is going to sleep….. so am I…. Big PIP trading profits to all my colleagues.
Great comments and personally, I very much enjoyed listening to each of you….
I thought I’d just write anything to get us up to 44 comments
take care all
A mark of dedication by one of our notable contributors — Here’s to Aby
Here is an article I read yesterday in ft.com
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/2f274c5c-6f2e-11df-9f43-00144feabdc0.html
here is the upshot – A bigger problem for carry trade devotees is that volatility on global markets tends to increase when the dollar is rising as global liquidity tends to contract, or not to increase as fast. “As long as volatility remains high it seems unlikely that the carry trade is going to return with a vengeance,” he says. “The carry trade does not just depend on a reasonable interest rate differential; it is also dependent on low volatility.” – This is because central banks with fixed, or semi-fixed, exchange rates to the dollar do not accumulate reserves at such a fast pace. This lowers not just the domestic money supply growth of central banks that intervene, but also the amount of their reserves that are ploughed back into global assets.
i am not 100% sure of all what that means but i think it means that when you have high volatility and USD rising it shows that no one wants to bother with investments and is taking a back seat, so no carry trade … i think, please help if you got it a bit better, but it does look like something we should know cough cough !
I think you understand the article perfectly. The volatility issue is exactly why when conditions get risky the market dumps the carry.
So, not only have w e had the unwinding of the carry trade go on for so long that it is possible we’re out of sellers, but now we have a momentary decoupling of the JPY from risk….SO….it could be a loooong time before we see enough confidence in the marketplace to trade the carry again – at least as a long term instrument.
Yes. Aby, I read it and shook my head….. I thought I needed to clear my head and read it again – which I plan to do….
long small AUDUSD ST .84040 TP .85470
Something that surprised me as I was reviewing the EURUSD was that the weekly chart shows that the EUR is nearly back to the 800 after a LONNNNG time. Maybe everyone was aware of that….?
yes i didnt really pay attention to it simply because the weekly 800 only starts in 2007 on my charts and was never hit ever so its not much of an indicator, and on meta trader demo that i also use there it isnt even there … but i get the idea.
We talked about that in the WLW a couple weeks ago. Remember watching for it late last year and it pulled back instead? It seemd pretty determined this time!
Aby and Triff, hard to duplicate but tried to save as picture on another computer… sent as email.
lemme know…..
yes i have that picture roughly … can you tell me where your 800 starts from is it further back than 2007 ? the truth is 800 weeks is about 15 years so data would have had to have been collected from 1992 just to start at 2007, and frankly the further back we go the more useless the data is cos then they traded completely differently without electronic trading so it was totally different …
ps well done Jerry for getting us to 50 comments a new Triff-record !!!!
Woo hoo!!
my chart goes back to April 1989. tried again for what it is or is not worth
the 800 ema starts july11, 2004
Yaqui made a good call yesterday on selling AUDUSD. To some extent, on the daily, it shows some consolidation. If it retraces 50% fibo on the Daily, takes price to .8566…… What music does the Yaqui harmonica reveal now? Or, perhaps wait for next week?? what think.
does anyone know why the AUD and NZD were the biggest movers in the nfp ?
Investors moved their money from commodities to equities on the good news. All the commodity pairs took a hit.